The general leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive along the southern front line says his forces have broken through in Verbove – and predicts an even bigger breakthrough to come.
No, but I don’t think that was ever the plan. The counteroffensive can succeed in a few different ways - cutting off supply lines to the occupied areas in the south, attriting Russian forces enough to force another unpopular round of conscription, or a major breakthrough like the Kharkiv offensive - but none of them are war-ending by themselves. It’s possible that Russia has a sudden change of heart and withdraws if it suffers some particularly tough kind of loss or Putin dies, but it seems very unlikely to me.
Sending Ukraine things like more modern jets and tanks has only started this year, which is clearly an intention to continue supporting Ukraine for a while. Nobody’s sending someone a fighter jet if they think it’ll no longer be needed in a month or two, after all
Highly doubtful. This thing will likely drag on for years unless something unexpected happens. Russia has been doing a piss-poor job, but they still have plenty of natural resources and people to throw in the meat grinder. The sanctions are bleeding them, but they still have plenty of oil to sell and there’s plenty of buyers still. Plus, if the Republicans and other Russian-compromised groups in other countries are able to get their way, they’ll cut off foreign support to the Ukrainians.
No way. There’s too many towns and cities left, each of which is it’s own puzzle.
But, if they can fix the Frontline far ahead enough, they can operate jets and missile strikes and certain artillery against anywhere in the occupied territory all winter
The absolute best they can hope for by the end of the year if everything goes amazingly well would be to reach the coast via their current salient and thoroughly establishing themselves, cutting off the land bridge to Crimea and the rest of Russia’s forces South of Kherson.
I don’t expect this to happen at this point unfortunately, but that’s what they’re trying to accomplish.
To be clear, Crimea itself is not a location they could hope to take back by force without a gigantic increase in the size and loadout of every branch of their military, think of it as a fortress whose land bridge is barely passable, and heavily fortified.
A much better strategy, which they’re going for, is to try to cut Crimea off from Russia as much as possible and keep them besieged, while they restore their pre-2022 borders to the east.
I have no idea how they intend to eventually retake Crimea, unfortunately at the current stage that seems like wishful thinking. But perhaps if they can take back and hold the rest of their territory, which isn’t unrealistic at all, they could slowly, very slowly, amass the required resources to attempt such a difficult campaign.
What the Russians would be doing with that time… I don’t know. Surely continuing to press the borders, bomb cities, and shore up Crimean defences.
I see no end to this war in the coming years, unfortunately. Not without compromise from one side, and neither wish to compromise (not that I’m suggesting they should, just observation).
Is it realistic that they end the war before the winter?
No, but I don’t think that was ever the plan. The counteroffensive can succeed in a few different ways - cutting off supply lines to the occupied areas in the south, attriting Russian forces enough to force another unpopular round of conscription, or a major breakthrough like the Kharkiv offensive - but none of them are war-ending by themselves. It’s possible that Russia has a sudden change of heart and withdraws if it suffers some particularly tough kind of loss or Putin dies, but it seems very unlikely to me.
Sending Ukraine things like more modern jets and tanks has only started this year, which is clearly an intention to continue supporting Ukraine for a while. Nobody’s sending someone a fighter jet if they think it’ll no longer be needed in a month or two, after all
Highly doubtful. This thing will likely drag on for years unless something unexpected happens. Russia has been doing a piss-poor job, but they still have plenty of natural resources and people to throw in the meat grinder. The sanctions are bleeding them, but they still have plenty of oil to sell and there’s plenty of buyers still. Plus, if the Republicans and other Russian-compromised groups in other countries are able to get their way, they’ll cut off foreign support to the Ukrainians.
No way. There’s too many towns and cities left, each of which is it’s own puzzle.
But, if they can fix the Frontline far ahead enough, they can operate jets and missile strikes and certain artillery against anywhere in the occupied territory all winter
Doubtful they can even reach the sea before the mud season. This is going to be a long war I’m afraid.
Absolutely not, unfortunately.
The absolute best they can hope for by the end of the year if everything goes amazingly well would be to reach the coast via their current salient and thoroughly establishing themselves, cutting off the land bridge to Crimea and the rest of Russia’s forces South of Kherson.
I don’t expect this to happen at this point unfortunately, but that’s what they’re trying to accomplish.
To be clear, Crimea itself is not a location they could hope to take back by force without a gigantic increase in the size and loadout of every branch of their military, think of it as a fortress whose land bridge is barely passable, and heavily fortified.
A much better strategy, which they’re going for, is to try to cut Crimea off from Russia as much as possible and keep them besieged, while they restore their pre-2022 borders to the east.
I have no idea how they intend to eventually retake Crimea, unfortunately at the current stage that seems like wishful thinking. But perhaps if they can take back and hold the rest of their territory, which isn’t unrealistic at all, they could slowly, very slowly, amass the required resources to attempt such a difficult campaign.
What the Russians would be doing with that time… I don’t know. Surely continuing to press the borders, bomb cities, and shore up Crimean defences.
I see no end to this war in the coming years, unfortunately. Not without compromise from one side, and neither wish to compromise (not that I’m suggesting they should, just observation).