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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

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  • This is true, China doesn’t care. I’m actually confused about the narrative around China wanting to take TSMC. Even the most cursory glace at the situation should make it obvious this isn’t one of China’s goals. This is because these EUV machines don’t work on magic. They work on knowledge and spare parts. Even in the unlikely scenario that China somehow invades and these machines aren’t destroyed by either China or the retreating Taiwanese, they aren’t going to be able to operate them and more importantly get spare parts to keep them running. They’d at best be used to disassemble and review.

    All of this ignores the fact that China is already at 5nm using their own equipment anyway. For the extra 2nm of difference between TSMC’s 3nm to SMIC’s 5nm isn’t large enough to rationalize anything close to what they’re talking about. It’d be cheaper to just keep subsidizing the Chinese industry rather than invading.

    All of this is to say, that China may or may not invade, but TSMC isn’t on the list of reasons. If anything, it’s on the opposite end. China has a LOT of motivation to bomb TSMC to prevent the west from getting chips as if TSMC is gone, then suddenly Chinese 5nm are pretty much the most advanced chips in the world (besides Samsung). Thus, the real conclusion is we need to invest in Samsung, which surprisingly isn’t happening for whatever reason is beyond me.




  • No, I’m only stating their formal argument to the best of my ability to explain it and ignoring speculation. Now, if I WERE to speculate, I’d say what you’re saying is probably closer to the truth. For Russia at least I’m almost 100% certain that’s the reason. China is very different. I’d argue that China’s stance has nothing to do with Russia, USA or Taiwan. There’s this weird myopia when it comes to China and their interests. China’s interests span far greater than those three little pieces of land.

    No, for China I’d argue we’d first need to ask who is their audience for this. That answer is the other nations in the middle east. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, etc… China has been trying to formulate a narrative that they are friends to Muslims regardless of the accusations of what they are doing in XinJiang. So, it’s almost certain China’s stance comes from conversations with those nations. So technically they are telling the truth in the sense that their saying what others are telling them. Reality is it’s just to win favor over the oil producing nations so they have stable supplies of energy.

    *Edit. Essentially what I think China is saying to the middle eastern world is you have a veto with me, the same way India has with Russia.


  • So I want to be upfront and say I don’t really agree with their argument, but I do understand it. What Russia and China are saying is by tying the ceasefire to the release of hostages is unfair to the Palestinian side. This is because they lose all leverage and then would be easy targets for Israel who doesn’t seem to mind bombing Palestinian civilians.

    My issue is that technically the only reason their bombing is because of the hostages and perhaps if they release the hostages peace talks can begin. The opposite of that argument is it will allow Israel to be even more aggressive after the temporary cease fire is ended.

    I don’t know, but that’s the argument.



  • While that’s true, I would argue the total human cost is similar. Your estimates do not count stolen and killed Ukrainian civilians. Adding those would make the numbers far closer, especially since no Russian civilians are caught in this conflict so far.

    Not saying any of this is OK. Just unfortunately the numbers are very similar. War is miserable.

    *And yes, the fact that Ukraine is suffering more losses due to the fact that it’s Russia invading absolutely makes Russia the bad guy here. I’m just pointing out that the losses are unfortunately very close.


  • What you’re saying is true, but misses the point. Yes, larger content creators can get sources of income besides advertising. However, the whole point of youtube is to let anyone big or small get started. Small creators can’t get started if they don’t have a source of income. So that’s where the advertising comes in.

    In a sense, twitch builds upon the success of youtube. They took large creators who could get the $5 subscriptions on to their platform. But this only increased the need for youtube to court advertisers.

    In a world without advertisers paying content creators, our options would be severely limited. We want small upstarts and cutting off their source of income is a terrible idea.

    Unfortunately, our world requires the necessity evil of youtube doing whatever it can to stop ad blocker. No matter how nice it is. And if you as a user are satisficed with the limited content from large creators, as you said, there’s always twitch.






  • Of course. That’s because you blindly believe the country that wiretaps it’s allies, like Merkle in Germany. That spies on its citizens using systems like Prism. Arrests journalists who report this like Assange. Yeah, those guys are totally who you should believe. And no, Huawei still hasn’t had any evidence against them, only conjecture from that country.

    And I know what you’re going to say. You’re going to call me naive and that Huawei definitely does it. But yes go on trusting the country with a laundry list of violations.


  • What are you talking about, did you read what you quoted?

    to provide a legal framework to recognise same-sex couples outside the institution of marriage

    An adult with full capacity for civil conduct may, in prior consultation with his/her close relatives, or other individuals or organisations who are willing to act as his/her guardian, determine his/her guardian in writing

    That’s the legal framework that answer’s the judge’s positive obligation.

    Thus, mainland has already created what the judge is telling HK they need to do.

    Also what does this have to do with the west? I said HK is following the mainland, not the west.




  • That’s absolutely true of China’s military equipment. It is absolutely close to equal to US equipment. The problem China has is it has no soldiers. It has a lot of people they call soldiers, but do not have people actually ready to fight.

    India recently sailed both their aircraft carriers and ran sorties on them. This was massive show of force to China. China the country with 3 aircraft carriers, one of them super carrier level. So why is just sailing 2 aircraft carriers a show of force?

    China has never sailed more than one aircraft carrier at a time. They simply don’t have enough sailors or pilots to do it. China’s military has a budget just like any other military. They spent all the money on equipment and nothing on training. They have a couple hundred thousand soldiers with full body armor and night vision, and that’s it. US in comparison, this is the most basic level of protection. China simply did not invest enough on training and basics.

    This is why you see all the articles about China hiring foreign pilots to train them. China is fully aware of it’s limits and are actively trying to change that. As the US generals have already said, China is moving towards being able to overpower, but not today.

    *Edit. And this is also the biggest difference between Russia and China. China is aware of their capabilities, where as Russia believed it’s own propaganda. If and when China attacks, it will be devastating. However, I’m in the camp of believing they will never attack. Because they’ll never feel ready. For all Xi said about being ready for war, they’re no better today with training than they were 10 years ago. Even though today they’re flying 5th gen stealth fighters.